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To ensure the projected baseline trend used in the project development is not overestimated, third-party evaluation will be conducted based on the recent past trends with predicted future changes.
When making predicted future changes, here are the common variable types that are used in evaluating the ecoregional projected trends.
Past Pressure: Population density, human pressure, roadways, railways, navigable waterways
Indirect Past Pressure: Built environment, nighttime light, Croplands and pasture lands, rivers and wetlands
Future Pressure: Roadways, railways, population growth, population density, agricultural expansion, climate weather condition
Land-Based Pressure: Pollution related to nutrition, organic, inorganic, light, and wastewater.
Fishing Pressure: Demersal, Pelagic, Artisanal
Climate Change: Ocean acidification, sea level rise, SST anomalies.
Ocean-based Indirect Pressure: Commercial shipping, invasive species, etc.
According to the specific location and environment, the variables may differ.
Next time, when you prepare to support credible nature-based projects, consider the projected trend with the variable used to have an independent view of baseline overestimation.
